What Calibration Means in Practice
Calibration is the accuracy of confidence, not the volume of opinion.
In an AI-oncology program, calibration is the ability to look at a model's prediction, an analyst's deck, or an enthusiastic founder slide and tell — with reasons — what is true, what is conditionally true, and what will not survive a pre-IND meeting.
Every claim of consequence in an OncAdios deliverable is retrieved, source-tiered, and externally cited. Every recommendation surfaces the reasoning trail, the strongest counterevidence, and the conditions under which the recommendation would change. This is not a process — it is the calibration discipline that makes the recommendation auditable.
Calibration also means knowing when the right path is not the path the published guidance describes. Some of the most consequential oncology approvals — accelerated approvals built on early response data, tumor-agnostic labels, novel surrogate endpoints validated under unmet need — came from sponsors who engaged the agency in territory the agency itself acknowledged was less well understood, and who built the evidentiary package that made the new path defensible. Fitting inside the guidance is often correct. Proposing beyond it, in dialogue with the agency, is sometimes correct. Telling the two apart is the work.
When the evidence does not support a recommendation, OncAdios refuses to make one. Refusal is part of the output, not the absence of one.